US stocks jump as investors look to a further slowdown in consumer inflation

• US stocks jumped Monday ahead of Tuesday’s consumer price index report.
• Wall Street expects January inflation to slow to an annual pace of 6.2% from 6.5% in December.
• But Fed policymakers have said recently that the central bank still has a lot of work to do on inflation.

US stocks jumped Monday as investors looked to Tuesday’s consumer price index report, which is expected to show a further slowdown in inflation.

Wall Street estimates that January inflation will show an annual pace of 6.2%, down from 6.5% in December as well as June’s high of 9.1%. The Labor Department will publish the data at 8:30 a.m. ET.

In a research note, analysts at JPMorgan said a reading of 6% to 6.3% is the most likely scenario with odds of 65%. If that happens, expect a bullish move from the S&P 500 with a gain of between 1.5% and 2%.

Investors have been optimistic that improving data will allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates later this year. But Fed policymakers have said recently that the central bank still has a lot of work to do on inflation and warned they eventually may have to lift benchmark rates higher than markets expect.

Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. market close on Monday:

• S&P 500: 4,137.29, up 1.1%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 34,245.93, up 1.1% (377 points)
• Nasdaq Composite: 11,891.79, up 1.5%

Here’s what else is going on:

• Traders have lost $7.6 billion betting against Tesla stock over the past month as the stock has surged, according to data from S3 Partners.
• The best indicator for where the stock market is going in 2023 is the two-year Treasury yield, Mohamed El-Erian said.
• Warren Buffett owns a little-known stock portfolio worth nearly $6 billion. These are the portfolio’s top 10 stock holdings.
• Russia is slashing its oil output by 5% in retaliation to Western sanctions, but ING strategists said the nation is likely struggling to find buyers in the first place.
• Dogecoin surged after Elon Musk joked at the Super Bowl that he was talking to Rupert Murdoch about the meme token.

In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• Oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.45% to $80.08 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, edged up 0.1% to $86.48 a barrel.
• Gold dipped 0.64% to $1,862.50 per ounce.
• The 10-year yield slipped 2.4 basis points to 3.719%.
• Bitcoin dropped 1.81% to $21,583.89.