Analysis | NCAA men’s tournament bracketology: The bubble gets tighter on Friday

Then there’s the opposite end of the spectrum. Take North Carolina’s Hubert Davis after the Tar Heels’ 68-59 loss effectively ended the tournament hopes of last year’s national runner-up.

“I don’t know,” Davis said. “I know it’s hard for you guys to think that I’m not thinking about that. Our record is our record. I think regardless of our record, I think we have shown throughout the entire year that we can compete and play and beat anybody in the country.”

Their record is 20-13, including 11-9 in the ACC. No North Carolina team has finished with a winning record in conference play and been excluded from the NCAA tournament since 1974, when each conference was limited to one team.

Carolina’s set of victories included a home defeat of Virginia last month. It was the “one” in the Tar Heels’ 1-9 Quadrant 1 record. They went 6-4 in Quad 2 games, picking off N.C. State, Charleston and Clemson at home, Ohio State and Michigan on neutral courts and Syracuse on the road. On paper, their worst loss was either to Pitt at home or Wake Forest on the road.

It isn’t enough, and it is not how anyone envisioned the Tar Heels would careen into mid-March. This was a preseason No. 1 team, which goes to show you a bit too much of preseason rankings is based on a small March sample size of the previous year.

Still, imagine if North Carolina lost in the second round last season. Most would have figured a core group of guards RJ Davis and Caleb Love, wing Leaky Black and forward Armando Bacot could have, at minimum, sailed into the NCAA tournament.

“It’s not a great feeling,” RJ Davis said. “It’s not the expectation we had coming into the year. It’s definitely frustrating and disappointing.”

As Hubert Davis navigated the stump speech that wasn’t, he sounded like a man who wanted to neither lie to everyone in the room nor throw his players under the bus. Not an easy task, especially less than a half-hour after North Carolina’s NCAA hopes almost surely met their end.

“At the end of the day, we had chances,” Hubert Davis said. “For eight or nine of the 13 losses that we had, we were up in the second half. So we had our chances.”

As for other business Thursday …

Here’s what to look for Friday …

Big Ten quarterfinal: Rutgers vs. Purdue, noon (BTN)

Rutgers (19-13) definitely needed its 62-50 defeat of Michigan, during which it held the Wolverines to 1-for-17 shooting in the first 19 minutes of the second half. It might need another high-end victory for its colorful résumé, and beating Purdue would check that box.

Bracket impact: The Scarlet Knights would earn some insurance with a victory, but a loss wouldn’t necessarily doom them to the NIT.

Conference USA semifinal: Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee, 12:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

The top-seeded Owls (29-3) will try to avoid getting bumped into the at-large pool against Middle Tennessee (19-13). The Blue Raiders dealt Florida Atlantic its most recent loss Feb. 16

Bracket impact: Same as before. Borderline teams really want Florida Atlantic to win this tournament since it will gobble up an at-large berth if it loses in the next two days.

American Athletic quarterfinals: Houston vs. East Carolina, 1 p.m. (ESPN2); Memphis vs. Central Florida, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)

Teams at the edge of the field start off with a little more wiggle room in the American. Houston is going to be a No. 1 seed. Memphis is safely inside the field, roughly around the No. 9 line. Everyone else is a potential bid thief.

Bracket impact: So long as Houston or Memphis wins the championship, the American tournament won’t have ripples on the selection of the field.

SEC quarterfinal: Mississippi State vs. Alabama, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Similar to Rutgers, Mississippi State did itself some good Thursday by surviving an overtime encounter with Florida. The Bulldogs have no holes or serious flaws in their résumé — particularly relative to the other teams near the edge of the field — and would reduce their concern from minimal to nonexistent with an upset of the Crimson Tide.

Bracket impact: Mississippi State shouldn’t have to worry about play-in territory if it reaches the SEC semifinals.

Big Ten quarterfinal: Ohio State vs. Michigan State, approx. 2:30 p.m. (BTN)

Listed only because the 13th-seeded Buckeyes (15-18) are the Big Ten’s sole remaining potential bid snatcher. Ohio State has defeated Wisconsin and Iowa on back-to-back days and has won four of five. The only loss in that stretch? Saturday’s 84-78 misstep at Michigan State.

Bracket impact: If Michigan State wins, the rest of the Big Ten tournament should cause no heartburn for teams at the edge of the field.

Big Ten quarterfinal: Penn State vs. Northwestern, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)

Penn State’s third defeat of Illinois this season moved them even more safely into the field — perhaps enough to avoid a trek to Dayton altogether. Beat Northwestern for the second time this month and the question of whether the Nittany Lions must deal with a play-in game should be fully settled.

Bracket impact: Penn State got the victory it needed Thursday night. Everything from here should be gravy.

Pac-12 semifinal: UCLA vs. Oregon, 9 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)

In 2013 and again in 2019, Oregon popped up as a Pac-12 tournament champion to earn a No. 12 seed in the NCAA tournament. If history is to repeat, the Ducks (19-13) will need to end UCLA’s 11-game winning streak in Friday’s semifinal and then win Saturday’s title game.

Bracket impact: None if UCLA wins, but the tension will grow in Las Vegas if Oregon lingers into Saturday night.

Mountain West semifinal: San Diego State vs. San José State, 9:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

San Diego State (25-6) is the Mountain West’s regular season champion and assured of an NCAA berth. San José State (20-12) foiled Nevada’s fading field of 68 hopes on Thursday while also earning its first conference tournament victory since the 2011 WAC tourney and securing the program’s first 20-win season since 1980-81. Former Nebraska coach Tim Miles has worked wonders, but the Spartans are not a viable at-large possibility.

Bracket impact: A San Diego State victory ousts a lurking bid snatcher. A loss makes Saturday’s title game in Las Vegas must-see TV for teams at the edge of the field.

ACC semifinal: Clemson vs. Virginia, approx. 9:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Clemson (23-9) is this year’s unicorn, even more so than Rutgers. The Tigers have winning records against all four of the quads on the team sheets, the sort of thing usually exclusive to top 20 teams. It also has multiple Quad 4 losses; of at-large contenders, only Texas A&M and Utah State can say the same. Its No. 333 nonconference strength of schedule is the worst among at-large possibilities; only Rutgers (No. 309) and Kansas State (No. 312) are also in the 300s. How the Tigers get treated is anyone’s guess, but they stand out in comparison to the rest of the edge of the field for at least as many bad reasons as good ones.

Bracket impact: It would be easier to write off Clemson if it lost this game rather than made the ACC final. But there’s an argument to be made the Tigers should be in regardless, just as there’s one suggesting the nonconference schedule and losses to Loyola Chicago (oof!) and Louisville (double oof!) will keep them out if they don’t win the automatic bid. Clemson is the wildest wild card left in the deck.

SEC quarterfinal: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt, approx. 9:30 p.m. (SEC Network)

Vanderbilt (19-13) has won nine of 10 after avenging a mid-February loss to LSU in Thursday’s SEC second round. The Commodores still need some more victories — and the plural form is probably the correct one — but they did pull out a two-point triumph in Lexington on March 1.

Bracket impact: The SEC is purged of potential bid snatchers if Vanderbilt is bounced.

Pac-12 semifinal: Arizona State vs. Arizona, approx. 11:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Arizona State (22-11) needed to do something in the Pac-12 tournament. Handling Southern Cal, 77-72, qualifies. The Sun Devils are not metrics darlings, but they do rank in the top 60 of the result-based rankings on the NCAA team sheets and have commendable Quad 1 (5-5) and Quad 2 (4-5) records. The loss to Texas Southern (NET of 309) is a dud, but there’s a growing case for Bobby Hurley’s bunch.

Bracket impact: Arizona State should at least be in the conversation for one of the last spots even if it loses tonight. But if it wins, it will have probably done enough to play its way in.

Mountain West quarterfinal: Boise State vs. Utah State, approx. midnight (CBS Sports Network)

Merely mentioned for the sake of thoroughness, both of these teams should be good to go at this point. Boise State (24-8) owns a 3-4 record in Quad 1 games and is a combined 12-6 against the top two quads. Utah State (25-7) has a modest 1-4 mark in Quad 1 games but is 9-1 against Quad 2.

Bracket impact: For Utah State, a victory should remove any chance it gets shipped to Dayton.

Rest of the schedule (none with a significant impact on the edge of the field or with immediate bid-snatching potential) …

American Athletic quarterfinals (Fort Worth, Texas): Cincinnati vs. Temple, approx. 3:30 p.m. (ESPN2); Tulane vs. Wichita State, approx. 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

ACC semifinal (Greensboro, N.C.): Miami vs. Duke, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Big East semifinals (New York): Marquette vs. Connecticut, 6:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1); Xavier vs. Creighton, approx. 9 p.m. (Fox Sports 1)

Big Ten quarterfinal (Chicago): Indiana vs. Maryland, approx. 9 p.m. (BTN)

Big 12 semifinals (Kansas City, Mo.): Kansas vs. Iowa State, 7 p.m. (ESPN); Texas vs. TCU, approx. 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Big West semifinals (Henderson, Nev.): UC Irvine vs. Cal State Fullerton, 9 p.m.; UC Santa Barbara vs. UC Riverside, approx. 11:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Conference USA semifinals (Frisco, Texas): North Texas vs. UAB, approx. 3 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

Metro Atlantic semifinals (Atlantic City): Iona vs. Niagara, 6 p.m. (ESPN News); Marist vs. St. Peter’s, approx. 8:30 p.m. (ESPN News)

Mid-American semifinals (Cleveland): Toledo vs. Ohio, 5 p.m. (CBS Sports Network); Kent State vs. Akron, approx. 7:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

Mid-Eastern Athletic semifinals (Norfolk): Howard vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore, 6 p.m.; North Carolina Central vs. Norfolk State, approx. 8:30 p.m.

SEC quarterfinals (Nashville): Missouri vs. Tennessee, approx. 3:30 p.m. (ESPN); Texas A&M vs. Arkansas, 7 p.m. (SEC Network)

Southwestern Athletic semifinals (Birmingham, Ala.): Alabama A&M vs. Texas Southern, 3 p.m.; Grambling State vs. Jackson State, 9 p.m.

Western Athletic semifinals (Las Vegas): Sam Houston vs. Grand Canyon, 9 p.m.; Utah Valley vs. Southern Utah, approx. 11:30 p.m.